well, you can’t do better than being right. velorant picked gonchar (phil and paul did not), gonchar won, and did the coup double. a great day for ukraine. but gonchar is not a threat for the overall, so let’s review how the actual contenders did.

velorant said the real contenders would be within a minute of each other. pretty close. the distance between floyd landis, who is now the closest thing to a favorite, and savoldelli in 19th place was only 1:12. anyone further back than savoldelli is going to have to do very well in the mountains, indeed.

velorant denigrated the chances of bobby j. and levi leipheimer. i was in a rush last night to get my predictions in, but now i can say what i really think. julich is a fast time trialist, but he rides at his limit (as did kevin livingston and the pre-blood doping tyler hamilton); thus, he has trouble keeping the shiny side up. i almost predicted a crash for him, a la 1999, but i decided that was too cruel. oh, well, i should have! as for levi leipheimer, has anyone noticed that he sucks? he has what i call the typical american attitude toward cycling. he trains hard, has great talent, gauges himself carefully on his p.c., consults with his coach, then goes out and rides like he is all alone in the race. no guts, no glory. no pain, no gain. no risk, no reward. then he wonders why he did not do better. to take an extreme example, are leipheimer and hinault even of the same species? there’s just no point of similarity–except leipheimer may be technically the better cyclist in theory. and that’s where his stage race victories will forever remain.

you know who else is like that? george hincapie. the ballsiest thing i’ve ever seen him do in a stage race is go for that time bonus that put him in the yellow jersey. and i commend him. and that is the last time you will see him in the yellow jersey in this tour. i already said what george needs to do to win this tour, and he did not do it. bruyneel would be smart to put george back in a support role for savoldelli and popo, who are now the twin team leaders. personally, i favor savoldelli. he did not have the form at the giro, but he very well could have it here. the mountains will tell.

the biggest successes today were landis and kloden. i missed the call on kloden, even though i know he can tt, because i had real doubts about his form. i was wrong. kloden has finished second in the tour and he has a strong team. he will give landis a run for his money and it could be great fireworks in the mountains. going back to my earlier posts, all of my favorites are there: moreau, evans, menchov, and sastre. i will still go with moreau as the dark horse. yes, it’s a long shot, but the key there is experience.

the single biggest loser of the day is not leipheimer, as he never had a chance in my book. it was mayo. however, if he has form in the mountains and rides for the polka dot jersey, rather than the overall, that could make it fun. unfortunately, mayo (and his team) probably still believe he’s an overall contender. wrong.

finally, how ’bout vandevelde? he was 3:13 back today; better than millar, azevedo, and leipheimer. pretty good for the american nobody called. he was only 1:15 or so behind zabriskie, and less than two minutes behind the world itt champion. always fun to make an unexpected call, and that’s what velorant does best.

now, on to the pyrenees.

apw.