i didn’t get a chance to say it before the tour started, but i’m excited about this tour. i love lance armstrong, but enough is enough. when lance won stages 15-17 in 2004, i started losing interest in “le tour de lance.” who am i to say, but how can anyone really claim that lance was seriously challenged at villard de lans or le grand bornand? alpe d’huez was a different story; lance won that won against strong challengers, but it was also not raced head to head, so who knows how riders would have reacted if they had been on the road with lance?

anyway, i was delighted to have an open field for the tour. really, it hasn’t felt like this to me since about 1988! i even kind of took a perverse pleasure in the whole “operacion puerto” clean sweep. it was depressing for the sport, but what the hell? let’s sweep out all the favorites–everyone with a pre-determined strategy to win–and totally turn the race over to those who have nothing in mind other than racing their hearts out. also, i was a little worried about basso. as much as i love him, his devastating performance in the giro had dope written all over it. i loved the race, but my heart sunk a little as basso rolled up the minutes on his rivals.

but things got weird today when valverde crashed out. and dani deluca sicked out yesterday. maybe “god” does want an american to win. i never said it, but valverde was my post-operacion puerto pick (and one of my pre-operacion puerto picks, as well). i would never have put floyd landis as THE favorite, but he very well may be THE favorite now. even hincapie and leipheimer are looking good, but i still harbor major doubts about both of them.

who else is there who is not american? discovery is stacked with the kind of second-tier possibilities who now constitute favorites: popovych, acevedo, and savoldelli. don’t forget carlos sastre on csc, who was going to expend himself for basso. don’t laugh, but the experience and motivation strongly favor christophe moreau. if there’s such a thing as a year for a frenchman, this is it, so don’t overlook moncoutie. andreas kloden rides on the diminished t-mobile team, and i have to admit that i’m just not clear on what his form is since 2004, when he was so impressive. denis menchov would never make a short list, as he usually prepares for spain, but he has an open field now. cadel evans is phil liggett’s perennial pick and his shortcomings in both the time trial and the hills (he usually blows one or the other or both) look less short against this field. iban mayo? he’ll do something amazing in the mountains, as will gibbo simoni–if only to cause trouble.

in the end, i’ll still pick a non-american to win this tour, as the sheer numbers favor that outcome. but i have to admit that some of the riders i’ve generally disdained over the years, in particular hincapie and landis, have a much better chance now than i ever gave them in the past. july 8 will be huge, as the first itt (in a race with no ttt) will be an all-out war among all those contenders who can time trial. the result of the itt will also dictate what the climbers have to do in the pyrenees and alpes in order to stay with the time trialists, who will get the last bite at the apple on the second to last day of the tour.

apw.